The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations

Boeck, Maximilian ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6024-8305 and Feldkircher, Martin (2021) The Impact of Monetary Policy on Yield Curve Expectations. Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 191. pp. 887-901. ISSN 0167 2681

[img]
Preview
Text
1-s2.0-S0167268121004297-main.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

Download (2MB) | Preview

Abstract

A great deal of monetary policy is aimed at steering market expectations but little is known about agents belief formation. This article investigates how US market participants adjust yield curve expectations in response to two shocks related to monetary policy. The results show that in the aggregate, market participants initially underreact to changes in monetary policy. This implies that news are not fully absorbed, which potentially impedes a smooth monetary policy transmission. We further show that these information rigidities could be driven by a lack of information diffusion among individual forecasters. Last, we find that depending on the source of the shock and the maturities of the yields, underre- action is followed by a period of overcompensation a pattern called delayed overshooting. Knowing this allows the central bank to better calibrate their actions in the first place, which could pave the way for more optimal monetary policy.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: monetary policy, expectation formation, belief bias
Classification Codes: JEL C32, D83, D84, E52, E70, G40
Divisions: Departments > Volkswirtschaft
Version of the Document: Published
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 19 Oct 2021 14:58
Last Modified: 19 Oct 2021 15:00
Related URLs:
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/101647/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/8353

Actions

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics