A hybrid demand forecasting model for greater forecasting accuracy: the case of the pharmaceutical industry

Kummer, Sebastian and Raheel, Siddiqui ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2286-7508 and Azmat, Muhammad ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8894-3737 and Ahmed, Shehzad ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0514-1315 (2021) A hybrid demand forecasting model for greater forecasting accuracy: the case of the pharmaceutical industry. Supply Chain Forum: An International Journal. pp. 1-12. ISSN 1624-6039

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Abstract

In the era of modern technology, the competitive paradigm among organisations is changing at an unprecedented rate. New success measures are applied to the organisation’s supply chain performance to outperform the competition. However, this lead can only be obtained and sustained if the organisation has an effective and efficient supply chain and an appropriate forecasting technique. Thus, this study presents the demand-forecasting model, i.e., a good fit for the pharmaceutical sector, and shows promising results. Through this study, it is observed that combining forecasting algorithms can result in greater forecasting accuracies. Therefore, a combined forecasting technique ARIMA-HW hybrid1 i.e. (ARHOW) combines the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average and Holt’ s-Winter model. The empirical findings confirm that ARHOW performs better than widely used forecasting techniques ARIMA, Holts Winter, ETS and Theta. The results of the study indicate that pharmaceutical companies can adopt this model for improved demand forecasting.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: ahead of print
Keywords: Forecast; combined forecast; hybrid forecast; supply chain efficiency; demand forecasting; forecasting technique for integrated systems; pharmaceutical industry
Divisions: Departments > Welthandel > Transportwirtschaft und Logistik > Kummer
Version of the Document: Published
Depositing User: Gertraud Novotny
Date Deposited: 20 Sep 2021 13:33
Last Modified: 20 Sep 2021 13:33
Related URLs:
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/101345/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/8292

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