Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model

Oberhofer, Harald and Pfaffermayr, Michael (2021) Estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit: A panel data structural gravity model. Canadian Journal of Economics, 54 (1). pp. 338-375. ISSN 0008–4085

[img]
Preview
Text
caje.12494.pdf
Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

Download (284kB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper proposes a new panel data structural gravity approach for estimating the trade and welfare effects of Brexit. Assuming different counterfactual post-Brexit scenarios, our main findings suggest that the UK’s exports of goods to the EU are likely to decline within a range between 7.2% and 45.7% six years after Brexit has taken place. For the UK, the negative trade effects are only partially offset by an increase in domestic trade and trade with third countries, inducing a decline in the UK’s real income of between 0.3% and 5.7%. The estimated welfare effects for the EU are not different from zero, but some members like Ireland are expected to also experience welfare losses.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Financial support from the Oesterreichische Nationalbank (OeNB, grant number 16736) is gratefully acknowledged.
Classification Codes: JEL classification: F10, F15, C13, C50
Divisions: Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Internationale Wirtschaft
Version of the Document: Accepted for Publication
Depositing User: Gertraud Novotny
Date Deposited: 09 Mar 2021 15:51
Last Modified: 26 Apr 2021 16:02
Related URLs:
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/98966/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/8029

Actions

View Item View Item

Downloads

Downloads per month over past year

View more statistics