We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers

Čapek, Jan and Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3244-6560 (2020) We just estimated twenty million fiscal multipliers. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 82 (3). pp. 483-502. ISSN 1468-0084

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We analyse the role played by data and specification choices as determinants of the size ofthe fiscal multipliers obtained using structural vector autoregressive models. The results, based on over twenty million fiscal multipliers estimated for European countries, indicate that many seemingly harmless modelling choices have a significant effect on the size and precision of fiscal multiplier estimates. In addition to the structural shock identification strategy, these modelling choices include the definition of spending and taxes, the national accounts system employed, the use of particular interest rates or inflation measures, or whether data are smoothed prior to estimation. The cumulative effects of such arguably innocuous methodological choices can lead to a change in the spending multipliers of as much as 0.4 points.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Funding by Czech Science Foundation, Grant Number: 17‐14263S
Classification Codes: JEL E62, C32
Divisions: Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Makroökonomie
Forschungsinstitute > Kryptoökonomie
Kompetenzzentren > Sustainability Transf. & Responsibility
Version of the Document: Published
Depositing User: Gertraud Novotny
Date Deposited: 07 Jan 2020 11:23
Last Modified: 18 May 2020 11:06
Related URLs:
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/93576/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/7394


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