Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model

Lutz, Wolfgang and Muttarak, Raya (2017) Forecasting societies' adaptive capacities through a demographic metabolism model. Nature Climate Change, 7. pp. 177-184. ISSN 1758-6798

Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Austria (CC BY 3.0 AT).

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In seeking to understand how future societies will be affected by climate change we cannot simply assume they will be identical to those of today, because climate and societies are both dynamic. Here we propose that the concept of demographic metabolism and the associated methods of multi-dimensional population projections provide an effective analytical toolbox to forecast important aspects of societal change that affect adaptive capacity. We present an example of how the changing educational composition of future populations can influence societies' adaptive capacity. Multi-dimensional population projections form the human core of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, and knowledge and analytical tools from demography have great value in assessing the likely implications of climate change on future human well-being.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: Partial support for this work was provided by the European Research Council (ERC) AdvancedInvestigator Grant focusing on "Forecasting Societies' Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change" (ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc).
Divisions: Departments > Finance, Accounting and Statistics > Statistics and Mathematics
Departments > Sozioökonomie > Sozialpolitik > Demographie
Departments > Sozioökonomie > Sozialpolitik > Demographie > Wittgenstein Centre
Forschungsinstitute > Human Capital and Development
Version of the Document: Accepted for Publication
Depositing User: Gertraud Novotny
Date Deposited: 26 Aug 2019 12:33
Last Modified: 29 Aug 2019 07:57
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