The irrelevance of stated plans in predicting farm successions in Finland

Weiss, Christoph R. and Pietola, Kyösti and Väre, Minna (2008) The irrelevance of stated plans in predicting farm successions in Finland. Agricultural and Food Science , 19 (1). p. 81. ISSN 1459-6067

Available under License Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Austria (CC BY 3.0 AT).

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This study estimates the value of farmers stated succession plans in predicting revealed succession decisions. The stated succession plan exists when a farmer answers in a survey questionnaire that the farm is going to be transferred to a new entrant within a five year period. The succession is revealed when the farm is transferred to a successor. The stated and revealed behaviour is estimated as a recursive Binomial-Probit- Model, which accounts for censoring of the decision variables and controls for a potential correlation between the estimating equations. The results suggest that the succession plans, as stated by elderly farmers in the questionnaires, do not provide information that is significant and valuable in predicting the true, revealed successions, once certain farm and farmer characteristics are controlled for.

Item Type: Article
Keywords: farm succession, retirement, stated plan, recursive probit
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie > Sozialpolitik > Volkswirtsch.pol. u. Industrieökonomik
Version of the Document: Published
Variance from Published Version: None
Depositing User: Mohammad Al Hessan
Date Deposited: 30 Jan 2018 13:51
Last Modified: 04 May 2018 05:50
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