Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend?

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus ORCID: and Lutz, Wolfgang and Sanderson, Warren (2014) Is the Demographic Dividend an Education Dividend? Demography, 51. pp. 299-315. ISSN 1533-7790

Available under License Creative Commons: Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

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The effect of changes in age structure on economic growth has been widely studied in the demography and population economics literature. The beneficial effect of changes in age structure after a decrease in fertility has become known as the "demographic dividend." In this article, we reassess the empirical evidence on the associations among economic growth, changes in age structure, labor force participation, and educational attainment. Using a global panel of countries, we find that after the effect of human capital dynamics is controlled for, no evidence exists that changes in age structure affect labor productivity. Our results imply that improvements in educational attainment are the key to explaining productivity and income growth and that a substantial portion of the demographic dividend is an education dividend.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: We would like to thank the participants in the New Directions in the Economic Analysis of Education Conference at the University of Chicago and at the 2013 annual meeting of the Population Association of America for helpful comments. Funding for this work was made possible by the European Research Council (ERC) Advanced Investigator Grant focusing on "Forecasting Societies' Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change" (ERC-2008-AdG 230195-FutureSoc).
Keywords: demographic dividend / economic growth / education / age structure / education dividend
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie > Sozialpolitik > Demographie
Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Makroökonomie
Forschungsinstitute > Human Capital and Development
Version of the Document: Published
Variance from Published Version: None
Depositing User: Elena Simukovic
Date Deposited: 22 Aug 2016 15:13
Last Modified: 15 Jul 2020 15:46
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