Detecting flight trajectory anomalies and predicting diversions in freight transportation

Di Ciccio, Claudio and van der Aa, Han and Cabanillas Macias, Cristina and Mendling, Jan and Prescher, Johannes (2016) Detecting flight trajectory anomalies and predicting diversions in freight transportation. Decision Support Systems, 88. pp. 1-17. ISSN 0167-9236


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Timely identifying flight diversions is a crucial aspect of efficient multi-modal transportation. When an airplane diverts, logistics providers must promptly adapt their transportation plans in order to ensure proper delivery despite such an unexpected event. In practice, the different parties in a logistics chain do not exchange real-time information related to flights. This calls for a means to detect diversions that just requires publicly available data, thus being independent of the communication between different parties. The dependence on public data results in a challenge to detect anomalous behavior without knowing the planned flight trajectory. Our work addresses this challenge by introducing a prediction model that just requires information on an airplane's position, velocity, and intended destination. This information is used to distinguish between regular and anomalous behavior. When an airplane displays anomalous behavior for an extended period of time, the model predicts a diversion. A quantitative evaluation shows that this approach is able to detect diverting airplanes with excellent precision and recall even without knowing planned trajectories as required by related research. By utilizing the proposed prediction model, logistics companies gain a significant amount of response time for these cases.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: To see the final version of this paper please visit the publisher's website. Access to the published version requires a subscription.
Keywords: air transportation / airplane trajectory / aircraft navigation / logistics / machine learning / prediction methods
Divisions: Departments > Informationsverarbeitung u Prozessmanag. > Informationswirtschaft > Mendling
Version of the Document: Submitted
Variance from Published Version: Typographical
Depositing User: Claudio Di Ciccio
Date Deposited: 28 Jul 2016 17:18
Last Modified: 14 Sep 2018 15:52
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