On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus and Moser, Mathias and Raggl, Anna (2013) On the Determinants of Global Bilateral Migration Flows. WWWforEurope, 5. European Commission, bmwfw, Vienna.


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We present a method aimed at estimating global bilateral migration flows and assessing their determinants. We employ that fact that available net migration figures for a country are (nonlinear) aggregates of migration flows from and to all other countries of the world in order to construct a statistical model that links the determinants of (unobserved) migration ows to total net migration. Using simple specifications based on the gravity model for international migration, we find that migration flows can be explained by standard gravity model variables such as GDP differences, distance or bilateral population. The usefulness of such models is exemplified by combining estimated specifications with population and GDP projections in order to assess quantitatively the expected changes in migration flows to Europe in the coming decades.

Item Type: Paper
Additional Information: The authors would like to thank Guy Abel, Nikola Sander and the participants in two Area Meetings of the "Welfare, Wealth and Work for Europe" project for very helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. The authors acknowledge funding from the European Community's Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 under grant agreement 290647, "Welfare, Wealth and Work for Europe". Anna Raggl acknowledges funding from the Austrian Science Fund (FWF): Z171-G11.
Keywords: Bilateral migration flows / gravity model / nonlinearly aggregated models
Classification Codes: JEL F22, O15, J11
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie
Departments > Sozioökonomie > Sozialpolitik > Demographie
Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Makroökonomie
Forschungsinstitute > Human Capital and Development
Kompetenzzentren > Sustainability Transf. & Responsibility
Depositing User: Elena Simukovic
Date Deposited: 23 Nov 2015 12:48
Last Modified: 22 Oct 2019 00:41
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/64747/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/4715


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