Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events

Safarzynska, Karolina and Brouwer, Roy and Hofkes, Marjan (2013) Evolutionary modelling of the macro-economic impacts of catastrophic flood events. Ecological Economics, 88. pp. 108-118. ISSN 0921-8009


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This paper examines the possible contribution of evolutionary economics to macro-economic modelling of flood impacts to provide guidance for future economic risk modelling. Most macro-economic models start from a neoclassical economic perspective and focus on equilibrium outcomes, either in a static or dynamic way, and describe economic processes at a high level of aggregation. As a consequence, they typically fail to account for the complexity of social interactions and other behavioural responses of consumers and producers to disasters, which may affect the macroeconomic impacts of floods. Employing evolutionary principles and methods, such as agent-based modelling, may help to address some of the shortcomings of current macro-economic models. We explore and discuss the implications of applying consumer and producer heterogeneity, bounded rationality, network effects, social and technological learning, co-evolution and adaptive policy-making concepts into existing economic frameworks for the assessment of macro-economic impacts of floods. (authors' abstract)

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: To see the final version of this paper please visit the publisher's website. Access to the published version may require a subscription. The definitive version is available at http://www.elsevier.com/.
Keywords: Macro-economic models / Evolutionary economics / Flooding / Agent based modelling
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie > Multi-Level Governance and Development
Version of the Document: Accepted for Publication
Variance from Published Version: None
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 18 Apr 2013 08:21
Last Modified: 12 Aug 2013 09:42
Related URLs:
FIDES Link: https://bach.wu.ac.at/d/research/results/59729/
URI: https://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/3859


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