Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus ORCID: and Fernandez-Amador, Octavio (2013) Business cycle convergence in EMU: A first look at the second moment. Journal of Macroeconomics, 37. pp. 265-284. ISSN 0164-0704


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We propose the analysis of the dynamics of the standard deviation of business cycles across euro area countries in order to evaluate the patterns of cyclical convergence in the European Monetary Union for the period 1960-2008. We identify significant business cycle divergence taking place in the mid-eighties, followed by a persistent convergence period spanning most of the nineties. This convergent episode finishes roughly with the birth of the European Monetary Union. We show that a hypothetical euro area including all the new members of the recent enlargement rounds does not imply a sizeable decrease in the optimality of the currency union. Finally, the European synchronization differential with respect to other developed economies seems to have been diluted within a global cycle since 2004.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: To see the final version of this paper please visit the publisher's website. Access to the published version requires a subscription. The original publication is available at
Keywords: business cycles / business cycle convergence / European Monetary Union
Classification Codes: JEL E32, E63, F02
Divisions: Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Crespo Cuaresma
Version of the Document: Accepted for Publication
Variance from Published Version: Typographical
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 04 Apr 2013 15:19
Last Modified: 15 Oct 2021 08:21
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