Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty and the Speed of Income Convergence in Europe

Crespo Cuaresma, Jesus ORCID: and Feldkircher, Martin (2013) Spatial Filtering, Model Uncertainty and the Speed of Income Convergence in Europe. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 28 (4). pp. 720-741. ISSN 1099-1255


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In this paper we put forward a Bayesian Model Averaging method aimed at performing inference under model uncertainty in the presence of potential spatial autocorrelation. The method uses spatial filtering in order to account for uncertainty in spatial linkages. Our procedure is applied to a dataset of income per capita growth and 50 potential determinants for 255 NUTS-2 European regions. We show that ignoring uncertainty in the type of spatial weight matrix can have an important effect on the estimates of the parameters attached to the model covariates. After integrating out the uncertainty implied by the choice of regressors and spatial links, human capital investments and transitional dynamics related to income convergence appear as the most robust determinants of growth at the regional level in Europe. Our results imply that a quantitatively important part of the income convergence process in Europe is influenced by spatially correlated growth spillovers.

Item Type: Article
Additional Information: To see the final version of this paper please visit the publisher's website. Access to the published version may require a subscription. The definitive version is available at
Keywords: model uncertainty / spatial filtering / determinants of economic growth / European regions
Classification Codes: JEL C11, C15, C21, R11, O52
Divisions: Departments > Volkswirtschaft > Makroökonomie > Nowotny E./Luptacik
Version of the Document: Draft
Variance from Published Version: Minor
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 11 Dec 2012 09:20
Last Modified: 02 Dec 2019 09:24
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