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Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction Modelling by Bootstrapping

Fischer, Manfred M. and Reismann, Martin (2000) Evaluating Neural Spatial Interaction Modelling by Bootstrapping. Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience, 72/00. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.

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Abstract

This paper exposes problems of the commonly used technique of splitting the available data in neural spatial interaction modelling into training, validation, and test sets that are held fixed and warns about drawing too strong conclusions from such static splits. Using a bootstrapping procedure, we compare the uncertainty in the solution stemming from the data splitting with model specific uncertainties such as parameter initialization. Utilizing the Austrian interregional telecommunication traffic data and the differential evolution method for solving the parameter estimation task for a fixed topology of the network model [ i.e. J = 9] this paper illustrates that the variation due to different resamplings is significantly larger than the variation due to different parameter initializations. This result implies that it is important to not over-interpret a model, estimated on one specific static split of the data. (authors' abstract)

Item Type: Paper
Additional Information: Paper presented at the 6th World Congress of the Regional Science Association International, Lugano, Switzerland, May 16-20, 2000
Keywords: Neural spatial interaction modelling / model evaluation / bootstrapping / interregional telecommunications
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie > Wirtschaftsgeographie und Geoinformatik > Fischer
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 08 Jul 2014 15:09
Last Modified: 08 Jul 2014 15:09
URI: http://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/4241

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