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Propagation of Crises Across Countries: Trade Roots of Contagion Effects

Aksen, Ernest and Cukrowski, Jacek and Fischer, Manfred M. (2001) Propagation of Crises Across Countries: Trade Roots of Contagion Effects. Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience, 78/01. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.

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Abstract

The paper provides an explanation of the mechanisms underlying trade roots of the contagion effects emanating from the recent turmoils. It is argued that under demand uncertainty risk averse behavior of firms provides a basis for international trade. The paper shows by means of a simple two-country model that risk averse firms operating in perfectly competitive markets with uncertainty of demand tend to diversify markets what gives a basis for international trade in identical commodities even between identical countries. It is shown that such trade may be welfare improving despite efficiency losses due to cross-hauling and transportation costs. The analysis reveals that change of the expectations concerning market conditions caused by the turmoil in the neighbor country (i.e., shift in the perception of market conditions) may lead to macroeconomic destabilization (increase in price level and unemployment, worsening of terms of trade, and deterioration of trade balance).

Item Type: Paper
Keywords: Crises propagation / contagion / reasons for trade / intra-industry trade / demand uncertainty / risk aversion / market diversification
Classification Codes: JEL F3, F4, F100, S800
Divisions: Fachbereiche > Mathematik und Statistik > Statistik und Mathematik > Angew. Statistik und DVA
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 04 Jul 2014 16:39
Last Modified: 15 Sep 2017 10:59
URI: http://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/4235

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