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Multiregional Computational General Equilibrium, and Spatial Interaction Trade Modelling: An Empirical Example.

Schneider, Martin and Fischer, Manfred M. (1999) Multiregional Computational General Equilibrium, and Spatial Interaction Trade Modelling: An Empirical Example. Discussion Papers of the Institute for Economic Geography and GIScience, 68/99. WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.

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Abstract

This paper analyses the effects of enhanced trade between Austria and its four neighbouring Central and Eastern European countries (Czech Republic, Slovak Republic, Hungary, Slovenia) on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria. The analysis is based on two distinct modelling traditions at the centre of regional science. The first model (a Fischer-Johansson Model of bilateral trade flows) is used to predict the volume and commodity composition of future trade flows based on a long term income scenario. The predicted long-term increases of the trade flows are huge. Exports rise by 190 % and imports by 160 % (compared to 1995). The effects of these trade flows on sectoral production and regional welfare in Austria are simulated by means of a multiregional computable general equilibrium model for the Austrian economy. The model contains the 9 Federal Provinces (NUTS-II). The likely implications of the projected trade flows are measured in terms of real income, which can be expected to rise by 1.2 %. The welfare gains will not necesarily be shared equally by all Federal Provinces. The results indicate a clear East-West pattern with the eastern regions of Austria gaining most. (authors' abstract)

Item Type: Paper
Keywords: multiregional CGE model / bilateral trade model / catch-up / Austria / Eastern Europe
Classification Codes: JEL C68, F14, F15, F17, R13
Divisions: Departments > Sozioökonomie > Wirtschaftsgeographie und Geoinformatik > Fischer
Depositing User: ePub Administrator
Date Deposited: 12 May 2014 13:02
Last Modified: 28 Apr 2015 02:15
URI: http://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/4142

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