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Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009

Leitner, Christoph and Zeileis, Achim and Hornik, Kurt (2009) Is Federer Stronger in a Tournament Without Nadal? An Evaluation of Odds and Seedings for Wimbledon 2009. Research Report Series / Department of Statistics and Mathematics, 94. Department of Statistics and Mathematics, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.

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Abstract

Wimbledon is one of the most popular annual sports tournament. In the Gentlemen's Single 2009 the top seeded and defending champion Rafael Nadal withdrew from the tournament due to injury days prior to the tournament. Here, we try to analyze the effects of Nadal's withdrawal especially on the ability/strength of the main competitor Roger Federer by using bookmakers expectancies to estimate the unknown abilities of the players and compare them for two different odds sets. The comparison shows that the bookmakers did not incorporate Nadal's withdrawal adequately, assigning too high expected winning probabilities to Federer and Murray.

Item Type: Paper
Keywords: abilities / consensus / bookmakers odds / sports tournaments / Wimbledon
Divisions: Departments > Finance, Accounting and Statistics > Statistics and Mathematics
Depositing User: Repository Administrator
Date Deposited: 02 Nov 2009 16:00
Last Modified: 26 Feb 2017 16:34
URI: http://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/180

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