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Improving predictive validity of choice-based conjoint models

Natter, Martin and Feurstein, Markus (2000) Improving predictive validity of choice-based conjoint models. Working Papers SFB "Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science", 50. SFB Adaptive Information Systems and Modelling in Economics and Management Science, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business, Vienna.

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Abstract

Up to date, it is unclear how Choice-Based Conjoint (CBC) models perform in terms of forecasting (external) real world aggregate shop data. In this contribution, we measure the performance of a Latent Class CBC model - not with an experimental holdout sample - but with aggregate real world scanning data. We find that the CBC model does not accurately predict real world market shares. In order to improve the forecasting performance, we propose a correction scheme based on external scanner data. Our analysis based on 8 brands shows that the use of the proposed correction vector improves the performance measure considerably. (author's abstract)

Item Type: Paper
Keywords: choice based conjoint analysis / external validity / latent class models
Divisions: Departments > Informationsverarbeitung u Prozessmanag. > Produktionsmanagement > Taudes
Departments > Finance, Accounting and Statistics > Statistics and Mathematics
Departments > Marketing > Service Marketing und Tourismus
Departments > Informationsverarbeitung u Prozessmanag. > Informationswirtschaft
Depositing User: Repository Administrator
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2002 13:16
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2014 07:32
URI: http://epub.wu.ac.at/id/eprint/1372

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